Tuesday, April 26, 2011

OPS is Much More Important than WHIP To Pitchers (Jonathan Broxton)

I wrote this reply to Mike Scioscia's Tragic Illness, a great blog about Dodgers baseball. He was talking about the implosion of the Dodgers bullpen last night and how though Broxton screwed it up, that he was not completely at fault.

There is a statistic for pitchers that I can’t understand why it is never brought up: oppOPS. Essentially, what is the average hitter’s OPS (on-base percentage plus slugging percentage) against Broxton. In 2009, it was a very good .479. In the first half of last year it went up to .585. In the second half it was a horrendous .909. For this year it is at .868. You can make all kinds of explanations for every blown save, and I think Mike had a very fair recap of what happened. Yes, the defense failed, but Broxton put himself into the situation to let it fail. But we cannot deny the fact that Broxton is just not effective anymore. We just need to figure out why/find a replacement. Now whatever happened, it happened in April or May of last year because that is when his oppOPS went higher than his career averages. By September Broxton became completely unusable. Whatever it was, it made him get hit harder and unable to find the plate.
As for possible replacements, why not Guerrier? His oppOPS the last two years has been .598, .625, and now .483. For Broxton: .479, .718, and now .868. I understand that he’s not as good as Broxton once was, but he is a whole lot better than Broxton is now.

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